03Foresight
A longer view for the decisions in front of you
Horizon scanning, scenarios and early-warning indicators for boards and finance leaders in the UAE and India.
Written by Ajit Jain, founder of Averise. Last reviewed .
Strategic foresight is a disciplined way to make decisions under uncertainty.
It does not predict one future. It maps several plausible ones, tests today's plan against each, and names the early signals that show which is arriving. Averise applies it to strategy, to tax structures and to transfer pricing policy.
Today
The decision in front of you
Signals
What is changing, and where
Scenarios
A small set of plausible futures
Choices
Options that hold across them
01
Scan, then sense
A scan collects signals of change across policy, technology, markets and society. Most signals are noise. The work is in deciding which ones could change the economics of your business.
Signals are kept with their source and date, so the reasoning stays easy to follow.
- Horizon scan for a sector, a market or a regulatory theme
- Driver map showing which forces are certain and which are open
- Indicator set with thresholds that trigger a review
02
Scenarios and wind-tunnel tests
Scenarios are a small set of futures that differ in ways that matter to you. They are built from the open drivers, not from optimism or fear.
A wind-tunnel test then runs a plan through each scenario. It shows where the plan holds, where it bends and where it breaks.
03
Foresight applied to tax and transfer pricing
A transfer pricing policy rests on where functions, assets and risks sit today. A restructuring, a new market or a change in law can move them.
We test a tax structure or pricing policy against scenarios before it is locked in. The output lists which assumptions the policy depends on and what to watch.
04
Our grounding in the discipline
Ajit Jain has completed the Futures Thinking Specialization of the Institute for the Future. His paper, Strategic Foresight in Transfer Pricing, was published in the International Transfer Pricing Journal of IBFD.
That combination of futures methods and tax practice shapes how Averise approaches foresight work for finance leaders.
Questions clients ask
- Is strategic foresight the same as forecasting?
- No. A forecast gives one expected outcome. Foresight builds several plausible futures and tests a decision against each of them. It is used where the uncertainty is too wide for a single number to be honest.
- What does a board receive at the end?
- A short scenario set, a view of how the current plan performs in each, a list of decisions that hold in all of them, and indicators to monitor. The length is set by what the board will read.
- How does foresight relate to tax work?
- Tax structures last for years, while law and business models change. Testing a structure against scenarios shows which assumptions it depends on. That informs both the design and the documentation.
- How long does a foresight engagement take?
- It depends on scope. A focused scan on one question is short. A full scenario exercise with workshops takes longer. Scope, timing and fee are agreed in writing before work starts.
Sources
This page is written in general terms and cites no legal instrument.
General information, not advice on your facts.
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